Sheppard LRT wrap-up - updated

OK - as usual the TTC is giving us a project that will deliver less than promised and cost more. I've updated this post based on the fact that the proposed line has now been shortened. I didn't realize this until I went through the material a bit more carefully:

The original proposal calls for the Sheppard East line to be 13.6 km long. The maps now provided (at the EA consultation and online) have the line going from the Don Mills terminus to Morningside. This is only 12 km long.

I've adjusted the stop spacing listed in the text below - all three posts. Obviously, this will reduce the speed on this s-LRT (slow LRT) even further.

As we wait to find out if there will be a TTC strike tomorrow, I'd thought I'd wrap up some last thoughts on the Sheppard LRT.

Here are my conclusions:

COST

This line will end up with a cost of about $1.1 billion for the 12 km - from the Eastern end of teh Sheppard subway to Morningside. I expect the option to be recommended for the Don Mills interchange will be LRT under the 404. Additional cost items include:

- a service/storage depot for the streetcars - say $100 million
- grade crossing elimination at the GO line - say $150 million
- the 404 tunnel (as above) - say $150 million
- street-scaping (which is or isn't included in the $550 million - $40 million
- 10% for underestimation on the general line construction costs - $50 million

(I'd note that if there are indeed multiple rapid transit projects ongoing, particular engineering and skilled trades will be in short supply. This is going to add to the price.)

Add this up, we get: $1.045 billion

BENEFITS

- negigibly faster transit service (most of the benefit is washed by the longer stop spacing and service). [Note - if the Don Mills interchange forces people to trudge down to subway level - most people will actually have longer trips overall.]
- new street-scaping - which could be done without the streetcar line

DISRUPTIONS

- four year construction period (2009 - 2013).

UNKNOWN

- potential traffic impacts. If the TTC sticks with the 5-minute headway, there should be minimal disruption to the N-S arteries that cross the route
- any option for the Don Mills interchange will help with the 404/Sheppard congestion.
- trucks might have a problem with the U-turns

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL

A chunk of the route is a city designated 'avenue'. In the 'avenue' concept, the city provides 'high order transit' - and this will turn the streets into a lush, tree-lined, walkable avenues.

I don't really buy this for Sheppard - and in general. The staff at last Tuesday's consultation were unable to tell me where this concept had worked. There are many cities with trams - but the trams go in and out of already built-up areas.

No doubt there are some lots on Sheppard E. that can be redeveloped. However, it's not true that there are vast sections.

My take is that the growth projections were picked to justify the LRT - i.e. "buses can't handle it and it's not enough to do a subway or RT". My A++!

WHAT COULD BE DONE

Sheppard could easily handle 3000 peak passengers (current is 1900) with a few adjustments:

1. Add 'scoot' transit priority - in Montreal, buses get a 10% speed improvement (and hence capacity) - $8 million
2. Add articulated buses for 50% of the schedule - gives a 25% capacity increase - $18 million

This pushes capacity to 2740 per hour - without any dedicated bus lanes. With a dedicated bus lane over the 404 (which would cost $$) , we'd be at 3000/hr peak direction easily - and speed would improve without taking away local services.

Sheppard LRT (Transit City) Consultation - Part II

Yesterday I penned some notes and observations on the TTC's initial public consultation on the Sheppard East LRT proposal. Here is more:

4. Connection to subway at Don Mills

The proposed LRT will connect to the Sheppard Subway. The TTC gives three options:

1. Surface connection at Don Mills - This would require expansion of the bridge over Hwy 404.

This is likely the least expensive option - but it stinks as a connection strategy because of the configuration of the Don Mills terminus.

2. Underground connection at Don Mills - This requires a tunnel under Hwy 404.

3. Extend Sheppard subway to Consumers Rd and build LRT connection there.

As the printed material provides suggests, this is likely the most expensive option - but the best for riders.

Note - in the original proposal, the connection at Don Mills would be underground:

Light rail service would operate from the underground transfer terminal at Don Mills Station, rising to the surface to operate the rest of the way in a dedicated right-of-way.

In option #1 above, the connection is not underground - but via stairs/elevators. This means that the TTC determined that it was not feasible to cross the 404 at surface AND have the streetcar line connect level with the subway.

As the TTC's printed material admits, going under Hwy 404 - with the subway or streetcars - is going to add even more to the project cost. (Transit City is already at $8.4 billion - on its way to $11 billion I'm going to guess.)

Blackout gridlocks city - cops look on

I had a fun day of driving yesterday.

The morning started with the normal - suffering from the awful drivers in Toronto. On the way to work - right now out near the airport - I'm waiting to turn left on an advanced green. The one driver in front decides to open his door to spit and misses the start of the advanced green. Seeing this, an oversize tractor trailer in the opposite direction decides to take advantage of the spitting to filter right. He blocks the entire road - no way to turn left.

The advanced green ends. Meanwhile - the spitter wont advance into the intersection to allow more vehicles to turn at the end of the normal green cycle.

In the afternoon, I head to my dentist in Yorkville. After the cleaning, I do some shopping - but at 6 pm, decide to go home for some dinner. I turn right onto Yonge heading south. Traffic is moving - but I'm soon stuck in complete gridlock - not the normal gridlock, but far worse.

The radio explains why: there is a power failure over most of the south est section of downtown. It's too late for me - I'm in the dreaded no turn section of Yonge. The first chance to turn will be Adelaide - and that turns out to be crawling.

I'm soon in the darkened section. Everyone is dutifully treating each intersection as a 4-way stop.

Now - there are police all over - on foot, car and on bike. Are they directing traffic though?? God forbid it. One officer is leaning against his bike watching a stopped up intersection at Queen & Chruch. You'd think - at a minimum - that the police would keep the transit routes moving. However, you'd be wrong.